A War of Rhetoric: 'New York Democrats' vs. 'Washington Republicans'

In 2006, the Nebraska Republican Party grasped desperately to the idea that 3rd District Congressional candidate Scott Kleeb was not a true Nebraskan - focusing on the years Kleeb had spent at Yale University and his successful out-of-state fundraising because their candidate - Adrian Smith - couldn't compete on the issues, by reputation, or with personality.

Now, looking to the 2008 Senate race, we already see the same sort of attacks revving up against potential Democratic candidate Bob Kerrey for living in New York City the last six years while serving as President of New School University.
What's funny is just how much hypocrisy it will require of Nebraska Republicans to attack Kerrey on this basis. For starters, Kerrey would be running to replace Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel - who was first elected in 1996 after spending two decades living in Virginia and Washington D.C.

Even more ridiculous, though, is the fact that two of the best-positioned Republicans hoping to replace Hagel have also recently declared Washington D.C. home. As most readers know and as cartoonist Neal Obermeyer has pointed out, Mike Johanns has been living in Washington D.C. since becoming Secretary of Agriculture for the Bush Administration in January 2005. In fact, Johanns is even reported to have gone house-hunting last weekend to reclaim his Nebraska residency.

Less well-known and less remembered is just how recently Hal Daub also called Washington D.C. home. The Omaha World-Herald (11/27/05) reported:

In July 2004, [Hal] Daub took a full-time job in Washington, D.C. He and his wife, Mary, sold their Omaha house and purchased one in the Georgetown area....

Daub never really put Omaha behind him during his 14 months leading the Washington-based American Health Care Association. Originally, Daub expected to spend three to five years with the national nursing home organization.

Of course, Daub didn't have a whole lot of say on his early return to Nebraska because he'd managed to alienate the AHCA leadership to the point that they couldn't wait to get rid of him. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone who remembers Daub's relationship with city officials when he served as mayor of Omaha.
 
Regardless, both Daub and Johanns have proven quite willing to adopt homes outside of Nebraska when it served their career ambitions. It's not my place to say whether these choices make them any less Nebraskan, but they make it downright absurd and hypocritical for the Republican Party to attack Kerrey on similar grounds.

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Bruning Poll Shows Johanns With Slim Lead

By: Dave Sund

Via TPM:

A poll released by Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) shows a close race against former Governor Mike Johanns for the Republican nomination for Senate, Roll Call reports. Johanns leads with 39% support, followed by Bruning at 30%.

 

"These numbers show that the pundits who say Mike Johanns is a clear favorite are flat-out wrong," said Bruning campaign manager Jordan McGrain. "Johanns is not the heavyweight among Republicans some expect him to be."

 

The poll also showed Bruning ahead of former Congressman Hal Daub in a two-way Republican primary, 48%-17%. Overall, the poll is a strong signal that Bruning has no intention of backing down if Johanns makes the race.

 

The Nebraska Senate race is expected to be a top Democratic target next year, if former Dem Senator Bob Kerrey runs for the seat. Two-term incumbent Chuck Hagel, a strong conservative who has broken sharply with the White House on Iraq, is retiring. Bruning was already running hard against Hagel in the GOP primary, citing Hagel's votes with Senate Democrats on the issue.

Standard caveats about internal polls apply, but this does show that Johanns isn't as strong against Bruning as his camp would have you believe. Don't underestimate the amount of support Bruning gained by challenging Hagel. This is going to be a very interesting primary to watch.

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Oh, The Rumors Are Running Thick Now

By: Dave Sund

This from The American Spectator:

With the announcement today that Sen. Chuck Hagel is retiring, Republicans in the Senate are privately giving big props to National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. John Ensign for his behind the scenes support to Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, which started about six months ago.

Of course, given this quote later in the article, it's pretty clear that they are either clueless or desperately spinning in favor of Bruning:

Former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey has also indicated an interest in running for the seat, though after years of living in New York and consistently opposing the Iraq effort, he would be an interesting foil to Bruning, a bright, energetic conservative. "It would be like Bruning vs. Hagel all over again," says the GOP insider.

This from Dave Heineman:

During a phone news conference from Taiwan, Gov. Dave Heineman said he "fully expect(s)" Johanns to seek the Republican nomination to succeed Hagel."

 

"I assume he will make some announcement in the next few days (or) within the next week," the governor said.

 

Heineman served as Johanns' lieutenant governor and succeeded him when Johanns resigned in 2005 to become U.S. ag secretary.

 

"Let me just say I know Mike Johanns very well," the governor said.

In the next week, huh? Well, then I suppose Bush better ready his short list for a new Secretary of Agriculture. Because surely Johanns and Heineman realize that he can't do any campaigning for Senate until he resigns that position. Kerrey, meanwhile met with DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer Tuesday. He says that he will be making a decision very soon.

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The Marquee Senate Race of 2008?

By: Dave Sund

The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit. I've devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska - for Nebraska - in 2008. The evolution of this race - from the initial rumors of Hagel's retirement, to Mike Fahey's potential entry into the race, Hagel's March "announcement," and Bruning's primary challenge, followed by Kerrey's interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle. In Don Walton's article in the Lincoln Journal Star today, this quote stands out: If it's ultimately Kerrey versus Johanns after 2008 primary voters have spoken and all the smoke has cleared, Nebraska may play host to next year's premier Senate race. So say Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray in The Washington Post. "A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle," they wrote last week. We wait in anticipation for Kerrey's decision.

The right-wing blog Leavenworth Street reports a few rumors of note, including this one: The word on the Street is that Mike Johanns has hired a campaign manager. Which would be interesting to say the least, because there's at least two things in that sentence that have Mike Johanns directly violating the Hatch Act. Maybe the rumormongers want to back off a bit before they get their preferred candidate into trouble with the law? Oh, wait, that's right, the Justice Department doesn't prosecute Republicans - especially members of the Bush administration. Speaking of Republicans having total disregard for campaign law, there's Jon Bruning, who placed an ad in the Omaha World-Herald on Thursday. Okay, you say, so what's the problem? It was paid for by Jon Bruning for Attorney General. The NDP blog explains the rest: This ad was financed with soft money - money collected without adhering to the rigorous standards required by the FEC in federal elections. State-level and lower candidates use only soft money for their campaigns. The problem is that Mr. Bruning has announced - three times, no less - that he's running for a federal office. And I think even a lawyer as practiced as Jon Bruning would be hard-pressed to convince Nebraskans that this ad is not intended to help his numbers in his bid for Senate. Then, of course, there's Pat Flynn, the fringe candidate who, in his campaign announcement, decided it was a good idea to get out in front of the story: Pat has not always led an exemplary life. He had some encounters with the law regarding alcohol and marijuana when he was in his twenties. Thankfully, the law won these battles and today these experiences are looked upon as an asset because of the life-change that occurred. With the help of God, a recovery program and the love of friends and family, Pat's life has changed and he has been able to help effect change in other's lives because of this experience. Pat is not proud of this part of his past but has taken full responsibility for his actions and understands well the concerns and challenges of many others who are dealing with these issues in their own lives. Here's guessing that Flynn's candidacy is already "up in smoke."

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Absurdities of 2008 Senate Race Explored in Detail

Two of the more respected old-timers of the Nebraska press corps, the Lincoln Journal-Star's Don Walton and Nebraska State Paper's Ed Howard, each published separate accounts today updating readers on the outlook for next year's race for the Senate seat currently held by Chuck Hagel (whose recess activities are the topic of our latest poll). Walton reports on Jon Bruning's attack dog tactics before taking a wider look at the campaign landscape: Target: Johanns. The bulls-eye has moved. Here are a couple of paragraphs from a Jon Bruning news release issued last week: "Attorney General Jon Bruning criticized the recent decision by Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns to close 10 Federal Farm Service agencies in Nebraska. 'These closings are not in the best interests of Nebraska,' Bruning said. `I intend to protect and defend our family farms as a member of the United States Senate.'   As mounting circumstantial evidence points toward the likelihood Chuck Hagel will not seek re-election, the spotlight begins to turn toward Johanns. Bruning, who had been targeting Hagel for his views on Iraq and immigration, may see Johanns emerging now as the chief obstacle standing between him and the 2008 Republican Senate nomination.....   Hagel has not announced whether he'll seek re-election. That decision presumably will come soon....Although he'll be in Nebraska for a number of events this month - including a visit to Husker football practice last Friday - Hagel has not scheduled his usual August congressional recess swing across the state. Meanwhile, Johanns isn't talking. But the wind is whispering yes....   Bob Kerrey is interested - if Hagel doesn't seek re-election.... "Is Bob Kerrey heading back to Nebraska?" The New York Post asked in its featured Page Six column last week. "At the recent fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton..., several Dems, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, were urging Kerrey to run for the seat of Sen. Chuck Hagel...." the report stated. It's not the first time Kerrey and Schumer have talked.   No matter how this all shakes out, Nebraska is going to be a nationally-prominent Senate battleground state in 2008. For all intents and purposes, Walton should be absolutely right about this race making Nebraska a battleground state. But, national attention has remained relatively scant - probably under the assumption that this doesn't become a race until Hagel decides not to run for re-election. In that sense, the national press is waiting for Hagel to announce his intentions every bit as much as the other potential candidates - whom Howard examines in greater detail:

Bob Kerrey and Mike Fahey and Mike Johanns are politicians from Nebraska, but it only seems like they are endlessly waiting for Senator Chuck Hagel. The situation has become an overlong example of politics of the absurd.... Johanns has not said he will not run against Hagel. Johanns and Hagel are not pals. Never have been. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.  There are very strong signs, subtle and not so subtle, that Johanns wants to run.   There is no question that Johanns represents the strongest possible Senate candidate the GOP can offer. Attorney General Jon Bruning has declared for the Republican Senate nomination. He can't beat Johanns.   Kerrey and Johanns were both popular governors. Kerrey is known for a touch of charisma. Johanns is not.... Several political watchers in Washington anticipate Hagel's retirement, but no one is certain, at this writing, what he will do....   [N]o one can ever be certain of what Kerrey will do. In addition, Kerrey has a reputation for sometimes changing his mind, even after he says he has decided what he will do. Seems a rather bold statement to declare that Bruning "can't beat Johanns" in a Republican primary. Howard may be right, but I think he might be over-estimating voters' affinity for Johanns - who definitely carries some baggage from his days as Governor and his involvement with the Bush Administration that would provide some easy fodder for Bruning if he's truly willing to keep those guns-a-blazing. Also, in contrast to Kerrey's legendary charisma, Bruning has a lot more personality than Johanns - even if it is the fake charm of an overgrown frat boy who seems to be permanently running for student body President. So far, much of the speculation around this race has relied upon some expectation of coordination between Hagel and Johanns - which Howard goes out of his way to refute. Regardless, the unspoken idea driving this whole hypothetical is that Johanns (and his blandness) could reunite Nebraska Republicans - both those who've been offended by Hagel's criticism of President Bush and those who've been offended by Bruning's criticism of Hagel - and see them to an easy victory. Sounds like a perfect little plan, doesn't it? But, politics rarely play out in these sorts of paint-by-the-number schemes - especially with wild cards like Hagel and Kerrey in the deck. That first card should be played soon, though....stay tuned and keep your fingers crossed for as much chaos and ridiculousness as possible.

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