A War of Rhetoric: 'New York Democrats' vs. 'Washington Republicans'

In 2006, the Nebraska Republican Party grasped desperately to the idea that 3rd District Congressional candidate Scott Kleeb was not a true Nebraskan - focusing on the years Kleeb had spent at Yale University and his successful out-of-state fundraising because their candidate - Adrian Smith - couldn't compete on the issues, by reputation, or with personality.

Now, looking to the 2008 Senate race, we already see the same sort of attacks revving up against potential Democratic candidate Bob Kerrey for living in New York City the last six years while serving as President of New School University.
What's funny is just how much hypocrisy it will require of Nebraska Republicans to attack Kerrey on this basis. For starters, Kerrey would be running to replace Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel - who was first elected in 1996 after spending two decades living in Virginia and Washington D.C.

Even more ridiculous, though, is the fact that two of the best-positioned Republicans hoping to replace Hagel have also recently declared Washington D.C. home. As most readers know and as cartoonist Neal Obermeyer has pointed out, Mike Johanns has been living in Washington D.C. since becoming Secretary of Agriculture for the Bush Administration in January 2005. In fact, Johanns is even reported to have gone house-hunting last weekend to reclaim his Nebraska residency.

Less well-known and less remembered is just how recently Hal Daub also called Washington D.C. home. The Omaha World-Herald (11/27/05) reported:

In July 2004, [Hal] Daub took a full-time job in Washington, D.C. He and his wife, Mary, sold their Omaha house and purchased one in the Georgetown area....

Daub never really put Omaha behind him during his 14 months leading the Washington-based American Health Care Association. Originally, Daub expected to spend three to five years with the national nursing home organization.

Of course, Daub didn't have a whole lot of say on his early return to Nebraska because he'd managed to alienate the AHCA leadership to the point that they couldn't wait to get rid of him. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone who remembers Daub's relationship with city officials when he served as mayor of Omaha.
 
Regardless, both Daub and Johanns have proven quite willing to adopt homes outside of Nebraska when it served their career ambitions. It's not my place to say whether these choices make them any less Nebraskan, but they make it downright absurd and hypocritical for the Republican Party to attack Kerrey on similar grounds.

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Daub To Join The Race

By: Dave Sund

The World-Herald has it:

Hal Daub, energetic and sometimes combative former Omaha mayor and former congressman, is hoping he scores a win in his third try for the U.S. Senate.

 

Daub is widely known in Omaha and in state GOP circles, particularly from his years as mayor of Nebraska's largest city, where he was praised by some for his willingness to take on tough political battles and criticized by others for being too aggressive and divisive.

"Aggressive and divisive" may be an understatement. But, hey, if Daub wants to lose another election, who are we to stop him?

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Bruning Poll Shows Johanns With Slim Lead

By: Dave Sund

Via TPM:

A poll released by Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) shows a close race against former Governor Mike Johanns for the Republican nomination for Senate, Roll Call reports. Johanns leads with 39% support, followed by Bruning at 30%.

 

"These numbers show that the pundits who say Mike Johanns is a clear favorite are flat-out wrong," said Bruning campaign manager Jordan McGrain. "Johanns is not the heavyweight among Republicans some expect him to be."

 

The poll also showed Bruning ahead of former Congressman Hal Daub in a two-way Republican primary, 48%-17%. Overall, the poll is a strong signal that Bruning has no intention of backing down if Johanns makes the race.

 

The Nebraska Senate race is expected to be a top Democratic target next year, if former Dem Senator Bob Kerrey runs for the seat. Two-term incumbent Chuck Hagel, a strong conservative who has broken sharply with the White House on Iraq, is retiring. Bruning was already running hard against Hagel in the GOP primary, citing Hagel's votes with Senate Democrats on the issue.

Standard caveats about internal polls apply, but this does show that Johanns isn't as strong against Bruning as his camp would have you believe. Don't underestimate the amount of support Bruning gained by challenging Hagel. This is going to be a very interesting primary to watch.

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Oh, The Rumors Are Running Thick Now

By: Dave Sund

This from The American Spectator:

With the announcement today that Sen. Chuck Hagel is retiring, Republicans in the Senate are privately giving big props to National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. John Ensign for his behind the scenes support to Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, which started about six months ago.

Of course, given this quote later in the article, it's pretty clear that they are either clueless or desperately spinning in favor of Bruning:

Former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey has also indicated an interest in running for the seat, though after years of living in New York and consistently opposing the Iraq effort, he would be an interesting foil to Bruning, a bright, energetic conservative. "It would be like Bruning vs. Hagel all over again," says the GOP insider.

This from Dave Heineman:

During a phone news conference from Taiwan, Gov. Dave Heineman said he "fully expect(s)" Johanns to seek the Republican nomination to succeed Hagel."

 

"I assume he will make some announcement in the next few days (or) within the next week," the governor said.

 

Heineman served as Johanns' lieutenant governor and succeeded him when Johanns resigned in 2005 to become U.S. ag secretary.

 

"Let me just say I know Mike Johanns very well," the governor said.

In the next week, huh? Well, then I suppose Bush better ready his short list for a new Secretary of Agriculture. Because surely Johanns and Heineman realize that he can't do any campaigning for Senate until he resigns that position. Kerrey, meanwhile met with DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer Tuesday. He says that he will be making a decision very soon.

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Chuck Hagel Likes Democrats' Chances of Reclaiming His Senate Seat

I suppose the following could be posturing on Sen. Chuck Hagel's part just to discourage complacence by Nebraska Republicans. On the other hand, this might be Hagel's way of emphasizing his legacy as the only Republican to have won a U.S. Senate race in Nebraska in the last 30 years. Regardless of his intent, this Hagel statement to the Lincoln Journal-Star should prove interesting to anyone forecasting the 2008 election:

"I am confident I could have won re-election," Hagel said.

Nebraska's GOP faces a challenge in retaining an open seat, he said.

"I don't know how anyone can say it's a safe Republican seat," Hagel said, in view of recent Nebraska political history. Democrats have won nine of the past 11 Senate races here.

Could Hagel have survived the primary challenge by Attorney General Jon Bruning? I'm on record thinking so but - at the same time - have no particular insight into the strange thought processes of your typical Republican primary voter.

Looking to the open field that now exists for the 2008 general election, though, Hagel is absolutely right in declaring that Nebraska's should not be considered a "safe Republican seat." On the other hand, I must again caution against the continued embellishment and exaggeration of Democrats' chances in this race should Bob Kerrey run. Kerrey's entry undoubtedly makes this a top-flight race, but his odds can't honestly be said to be any better than 50 - 50 if former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns gets the nomination. I could see Kerrey having a slight advantage over any other potential Republican nominees, but there's no way this race is a cake walk.

What troubles me most about these out-sized expectations is the effect they'll have should Kerrey opt-out of the race. Suddenly, Nebraska becomes a lost opportunity rather than the battleground it could and should be in 2008. Sure, without Kerrey, the race could rightfully be said to "lean Republican," but it can't be considered a safe bet for the GOP by any stretch of the imagination.

No doubt about it - Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey has the potential to beat any candidate the Republicans could put up, including Johanns. That isn't saying it would be easy...or likely....but it's well beyond plausible and should be kept in mind as the next wave of candidates declare and this exciting campaign develops.

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Chuck Hagel's Blaze of Glory?

By: Ryan Anderson

If you're looking for some perspective on Hagel's announcement today, you can't do much better than Don Walton's column for the Lincoln Journal Star. Eschewing for a moment the horses racing and dominos toppling, Walton stops to reflect on Hagel's service in light of the promises he made and the statements he gave during his breakout campaign in '96. The main thrust of Walton's column is that Hagel is a simple man and an honest politician who simply kept the promises he made... namely: to support the Republican Party whenever he could, to support his country's interests whenever he must, and to try and get the job done in twelve years. Fair enough. But there's another story in this piece about another Chuck Hagel: the warrior, the fighter, and, ultimately, the champion. Hagel and his team had just finished what Jim Exon later would describe as the most flawless campaign he had ever seen. Grudging praise from the Democratic political maestro and retiring senator Hagel would succeed.   During that 19 months, Hagel emerged from comparative obscurity to overcome and handily defeat the Republican and the Democrat who had been the leading vote-gatherers in their parties two years earlier.   First, Hagel caught Attorney General Don Stenberg in the Republican primary. Then, he ran down Ben Nelson, who had been re-elected governor in a statewide landslide.   In the beginning, Chuck Hagel was a Republican hero.

Hagel was never a man short on energy and talent, and those gifts have served him exceptionally well in every fight he's picked and every race he's run. That's a good thing for us, and I mean it. Our political system works best when it works us the hardest. We should value worthy opponents: they force us to rethink old strategies and question old ideas. Hagel was such an opponent, and we owe him for that. It's a shame, really, to see the old gladiator lay down his sword before an opportunist like Bruning, but perhaps Hagel's got fight left in him yet. Freed at last from party allegiance and political jockeying, he's left only with that talent and that energy, that fight and that promise: to serve the interests of his state and his nation. And we need that service, now more than ever.  The spotlight may have passed from Hagel's political career, but it shines everyday on the challenges left in Iraq. As Senator, Hagel has not always shown the judgement or the courage to take whatever action neccessary to meet that challenge. But he has shown an ability to question, a capacity for growth, and in these dual qualities he has proven a potential to lead.  Well, Senator, this is your chance. Now is your time. You have the talent and the opportunity. What you haven't is an excuse. Here's hoping there's still one fight left in this dog.

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A Golden Opportunity: More Reactions to Hagel's Retirement

From the Omaha World-Herald:

Democrats hold a 51-to-49 majority in the Senate and they would like to extend that lead in 2008. Republicans must defend 22 of 34 seats on the ballot next year, and about a half-dozen are considered vulnerable. Democrats, meanwhile, hold 12 seats that will be on the ballot, and only one or two are considered vulnerable at this point....

"The good news for Democrats just keeps coming," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, after hearing of Hagel's plans.

"The Democrats have got an enormous playing field for 2008 in the Senate. They have lots of Republicans to target and a good chance of picking up seats in the Senate," Sabato said.

From CQ Politics:

Pollster John Zogby said Hagel's retirement would complicate efforts by Republicans to regain a Senate majority, forcing them to defend an open seat in what is likely to be a tough race.

"It was already tilting against the Republicans as far as regaining control of the Senate. Now Nebraska is going to be competitive. Polls had shown recently Hagel was not a shoo-in. Now, with an open seat in a state that can go either way, it's clear that the Nebraska is another state that Republicans have to worry about," he said.

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NE-Sen: Hagel To Announce Retirement Monday

By: Dave Sund

Don Walton confirms it:

Sen. Chuck Hagel will announce Monday he'll not seek re-election next year.

 

Hagel also will tell an Omaha news conference he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008, clamping a lid on speculation he might be pondering a late-inning presidential bid.

 

In a prelude to Monday's announcement, he conferred Friday with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

 

Later, Hagel gathered his Washington staff together to inform them of his decision, according to sources close to the senator.

 

Hagel's departure at the end of 2008 will bring an end to a meteoric 12-year Senate ride that propelled him to national prominence as the most outspoken Republican opponent of President Bush's Iraq war policies.

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'Open Left' Opens Up About Bob Kerrey & Scott Kleeb

From Open Left:

Notes on Nebraska Politics
by: Mike Lux

Although Chuck Hagel is obviously a really quirky guy and could change his mind at the drop of a hat, everyone I talked to in the know about Nebraska politics is pretty convinced that Hagel is going to announce his retirement, and that Bob Kerrey is going to get in the race to replace him. I know that many in the blogosphere are not fans of Kerrey's, some even comparing him to Lieberman, and I have never been close to him. But I think his running again is actually a good thing.

The most obvious reason is that he will likely give Democrats another seat in the Senate. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and Scott Kleeb are the two other potential Senate candidates, and while both have a lot going for them, I think their paths to winning a statewide Senate race are much more uphill compared to Kerrey's, who is still very popular and who would likely beat any of the Republican candidates.

I also don't think Kerrey is as bad as a lot of the blogosphere assumes. He is for sure an independent cuss, one who has driven me crazy many times over the years, and he would be very unpredictable on issues the progressive community cares about. But overall he was the most progressive Senator that Nebraska has had since the legendary George Norris (a Republican in the 1930s who championed rural electrification and labor law reform). And unlike most politicians, he will be open and passionate about what he believes. He will drive us all crazy from time to time, but on balance he's a whole lot better than either Lieberman or any of the Republicans running.

I also had a good conversation with Scott Kleeb, his wife and new Nebraskan Jane Fleming Kleeb, and most importantly their one month-old baby Maya (they got me to lunch by promising I could hold her). Scott got 45% last year in one of the five most Republican districts in the country, and is trying to decide whether to run again. It's a tough call given the nature of the district, and it would be really difficult to defend the seat even if he did win in 2008. I think he's leaning toward going for it in spite of the odds, and I hope he does- he's a good guy. The nature of the district wouldn't allow him to vote with progressives on every issue, but I think he would always be open to listening to us, and would do what he could, given the district, to be a solid team player for Democratic leadership on tough votes.

Sharing a ticket with Bob Kerrey could only strengthen Kleeb's candidacy should he again challenge Adrian Smith, the Third District's freshman Congressman. This Kerrey-Kleeb tandem (certain to attract a top-tier candidate in the 2nd Congressional District, as well) could lay the groundwork for a united front by Nebraska Democrats, running a true statewide campaign the likes of which hasn't been seen in almost two decades (since Ben Nelson's 'go it alone' philosophy took hold, leaving Nebraska Democrats with no real identity and making a true Democratic Party brand all-but-impossible to establish).

Of course, there are enough cards still in the deck that its too early to assume anything of the 2008 election. But, reading the above, there are definitely reasons to hope. The dream may yet become a reality.

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Is Hagel Ready To Make It Official?

By: Dave Sund

Via Leavenworth Street, the Washington Note reports:

The word is slowly leaking out that not only is Chuck Hagel not going to run for President -- but he's not going to run for the Senate again in 2008. I'm not sure this is the final word, but Hagel is getting ready to make an announcement either this next Saturday or the one following -- and all indicators are that he is going to depart an institution that very much still needs his conscience and sensibilities.

Going to the poll that is currently on the sidebar, this falls under the "politics of Husker football," and one of those things national media types like Steve Clemons won't get. There's no way that Hagel's announcement will come on September 15. Every second of media on that day will be devoted to the Nebraska-USC game.

I don't doubt the accuracy of Clemons' sources, though, in that I think we can expect Hagel's decision to come in the next couple of weeks. There's certainly no surprise on this end: it's been a foregone conclusion since at least June. Just a question of "when," and when the Democratic field will shake out. The next two weeks should be very interesting.

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The Marquee Senate Race of 2008?

By: Dave Sund

The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit. I've devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska - for Nebraska - in 2008. The evolution of this race - from the initial rumors of Hagel's retirement, to Mike Fahey's potential entry into the race, Hagel's March "announcement," and Bruning's primary challenge, followed by Kerrey's interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle. In Don Walton's article in the Lincoln Journal Star today, this quote stands out: If it's ultimately Kerrey versus Johanns after 2008 primary voters have spoken and all the smoke has cleared, Nebraska may play host to next year's premier Senate race. So say Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray in The Washington Post. "A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle," they wrote last week. We wait in anticipation for Kerrey's decision.

The right-wing blog Leavenworth Street reports a few rumors of note, including this one: The word on the Street is that Mike Johanns has hired a campaign manager. Which would be interesting to say the least, because there's at least two things in that sentence that have Mike Johanns directly violating the Hatch Act. Maybe the rumormongers want to back off a bit before they get their preferred candidate into trouble with the law? Oh, wait, that's right, the Justice Department doesn't prosecute Republicans - especially members of the Bush administration. Speaking of Republicans having total disregard for campaign law, there's Jon Bruning, who placed an ad in the Omaha World-Herald on Thursday. Okay, you say, so what's the problem? It was paid for by Jon Bruning for Attorney General. The NDP blog explains the rest: This ad was financed with soft money - money collected without adhering to the rigorous standards required by the FEC in federal elections. State-level and lower candidates use only soft money for their campaigns. The problem is that Mr. Bruning has announced - three times, no less - that he's running for a federal office. And I think even a lawyer as practiced as Jon Bruning would be hard-pressed to convince Nebraskans that this ad is not intended to help his numbers in his bid for Senate. Then, of course, there's Pat Flynn, the fringe candidate who, in his campaign announcement, decided it was a good idea to get out in front of the story: Pat has not always led an exemplary life. He had some encounters with the law regarding alcohol and marijuana when he was in his twenties. Thankfully, the law won these battles and today these experiences are looked upon as an asset because of the life-change that occurred. With the help of God, a recovery program and the love of friends and family, Pat's life has changed and he has been able to help effect change in other's lives because of this experience. Pat is not proud of this part of his past but has taken full responsibility for his actions and understands well the concerns and challenges of many others who are dealing with these issues in their own lives. Here's guessing that Flynn's candidacy is already "up in smoke."

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Did Jon Bruning Vote For Kerrey?

By: Dave Sund

Back in 1993, you may recall, Jon Bruning was a young liberal law student at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. In 1996, he ran for legislature as a die-hard conservative. Quite the evolution in such a short time, and quite typical of Bruning's ruthless ambition.
 
In between, there was an election, and Bruning - as the civic-minded person he no doubt must be, to have such an interest in public service - voted. And it's not hard to imagine, given Bruning's positions at the time and Kerrey's 55% of the vote, that Jon Bruning voted for Bob Kerrey the last time that Kerrey ran for office in this state. Will Bruning change his position on Bob Kerrey just to win the Republican nomination? The answers to some questions are not such a mystery.

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Bob Kerrey & Chuck Hagel: Best Friends Forever???

In Nebraska politics, we've all seen how ambition for higher office has driven Attorney General Jon Bruning from declaring himself "a Hagel guy" to making Sen. Chuck Hagel a target of any attack he could think of in just a matter of weeks. Unreported has been the similar flip-flop by Hal Daub, who went from announcing in December that he would not consider a U.S. Senate bid if Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel seeks a third term to now declaring "I don't care who runs." And, how can anyone forget the August fundraiser for the Nebraska Republican Party where praise for Hagel by the night's keynote speaker was met by nothing but silence from his party's faithful. With responses like these, you might expect Hagel to be feeling a little bit lonely. A little bit isolated. A little bit betrayed. But, then, of all people, there is Bob Kerrey - the lone voice in Nebraska politics defending Hagel, praising Hagel, and even encouraging him to run for re-election. What might distinguish Kerrey even more than the respect he continues to show towards Hagel, though, is that he's actually been consistent regarding his friend and former colleague. Well, if the following article from the Omaha World-Herald or the above picture are any indicator, it looks like Kerrey is still the one leader on whose support Hagel could actually count:

Sen. Chuck Hagel and former Sen. Bob Kerrey appeared together Wednesday, following the same script: Both smiled and both sidestepped questions about which, if either, of them may run for the Senate next year. The Vietnam veterans teamed up at a Capitol Hill press conference to voice support for the Omaha-based Wounded Warriors organization, which hopes to build a retreat for wounded service members, their families and relatives of those killed in combat on 80 acres near Crawford in northwest Nebraska. But neither Kerrey nor Hagel had much to say when the subject turned to next year's U.S. Senate race....  Before Wednesday's press conference, the two met behind closed doors in Hagel's office in the Russell Senate Office Building. Loud laughter could be heard outside....   "I just told him I knew it is a tough decision, since I went through the same thing seven years ago, and I told him I hope he goes for third," Kerrey said in an e-mail sent later in the day. "It will be a big loss for Nebraska and the nation if he leaves the Senate," Kerrey added. Admittedly, the New Nebraska Network has not always been so praising of Hagel, but I certainly appreciate his leadership and insight in foreign policy matters going well beyond his outspoken criticism of the war in Iraq. More importantly, it is heartening to see a politician of Kerrey's stature disregarding party lines and political games with the same independence and integrity for which he's always been known by the people of Nebraska. Of course, it's understandable why ambitious Republicans like Jon Bruning and Hal Daub would turn their backs on Hagel, hoping to appeal to all those silent Republican activists who don't care to face the truth about President Bush's failures. One wonders - one might even expect - that they will change their tune if Hagel announces he won't be seeking re-election - an effort to create a false united front, as if they hadn't just been preparing his political destruction. It shouldn't matter. However Hagel ultimately chooses to position himself politically, the people of Nebraska have seen these men's true colors for themselves - pandering to their party's extremists. At the same time, the people have seen Kerrey stand by Hagel, reflecting Nebraska's tradition of nonpartisanship. In doing so, Kerrey is also representing the vast majority of Nebraskans who overwhelmingly elected Hagel in 2002 and - looking to 2008 - have concerns far greater than protecting President Bush and the Republican status quo. Bob Kerrey is a man for all Nebraskans. He was as Governor. He was as Senator. Let's hope he'll again be the candidate for all Nebraskans very, very soon.

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Don Walton On Hal Daub (maybe "Gets On" would have been more correct)

The Lincoln Journal-Star's Don Walton goes above and beyond trying to make the ever-unlikeable Hal Daub seem like a legitimate contender for the Republican Party's 2008 Senate nomination. Restrain your gag reflex and read for yourself:

Ideaman. That's Hal Daub. Intensity is the first word that comes to mind when describing the former Omaha mayor and former four-term Republican congressman. Usually, the body is in restless motion; last week in Lincoln it was the mind. At the end of a workday, Daub sat down in a semi-circle with about a dozen people in a meeting room at the Cornhusker Marriott to exchange views about the country's challenges and concerns....  

For two hours, Daub poses questions, seeks opinions, raises alternatives, proposes solutions. It is a tour de force. If Daub decides to enter the 2008 Senate race, he'll take the debate deeper than most candidates will want to go. Below the safety of the surface where many candidates prefer to float in consultant-tested life jackets, down into dangerous waters. Hal Daub is a deep sea diver....

You'd have to be a deep sea diver to wade through the remainder of Walton's Daub-loving drivel. Frankly, I don't know what Walton's talking about describing Daub as an "ideaman" known for his "intensity". To most people, the impression of Daub that usually comes to mind is "asshole" ("slimy politician" and "arrogant prick" are tied for second).

And, seriously, what sort of "tour de force" involves sitting around and talking with a dozen like-minded Republicans who weren't going to challenge a damn thing Daub had to say - not to mention the Journal-Star reporter looking around for a bigger spoon just so he could get a bigger bite of Daub's BS. Eat it up, Don. And, by all means, enjoy it while it lasts.

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Kos Predicts "Likely" Victory for Potential Kerrey Campaign

Markos, founder of the DailyKos community and probably the best-known political blogger in the country, has released his projections for the 2008 election cycle in the U.S. Senate. Quite stunning is the fact that he ranks a Nebraska Senate race without Republican incumbent Chuck Hagel and with Democratic former governor and U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey as one of the Democratic Party's absolute best hopes for expanding their Senate majority.  He writes: Here are my rankings of races most likely to switch parties at this point in time. TOP TIER 4. Nebraska (Hagel - R) Another race assuming someone gets out (Hagel) and someone gets in (Bob Kerrey). If this happens, it would mark one of the DSCC's biggest recruiting coups and force Republicans to play defense in a likely losing battle -- the best of all worlds. Now, I think it's great that some prominent voices in the Democratic Party and the new media are starting to take a good, hard look at the Nebraska Senate picture. With Kerrey in the race - even with Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey - this race is well-deserving of top tier status. But, I won't deny being more than a little bit concerned with overhyping a Kerrey candidacy. To say that Kerrey gives Democrats' their best chance in Nebraska is undeniable. To suggest that he's "likely" to win, though, seems somewhat extreme from where I'm standing.

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but we have to be practical. We can't completely forget that it's been 13 years since Nebraskans last voted for Bob Kerrey. Nor can we be totally oblivious to the barely legitimate but no less effective criticism of Kerrey for living in New York City since leaving the U.S. Senate in 2001. Furthermore, the shadow of former Gov. and current Agricultural Secretary Mike Johanns hangs over the Republican field of candidates, probably as close to evenly-matched as they could get should both he and Kerrey enter the fray. Nevermind that we still have no assurances from Kerrey that he is running - even if the rumor mills and inside buzz all say he's practically on the verge of announcing. There's a lot to be said for a Senate bid by a re-emergent Kerrey in 2008. But, there are also real dangers for Nebraska Democrats becoming so caught up in Kerrey's star-quality that they lose sight of the 2008 election as it actually stands. And, for all the excitement about Kerrey's possible return to Nebraska politics, I just can't wrap my brain around any situation where he becomes an instant favorite - as Kos seems to suggest. What do you say, Nebraska? Am I failing to see the forest from the trees? Am I too caught up in the minutia of Nebraska politics - too close to memories of the 2002 and 2004 elections - to the point that my perceptions of this race are corrupted and prone to excessive skepticism? Again, I think we have a real opportunity in this race. Looking at Kos' list and the Cillizza list that preceded it, I'd agree that it's definte Top 10 material in terms of simple competitiveness. I just can't, for the life of me, call this a "likely losing battle" for Nebraska Republicans. But, maybe that's just me. I hope so. It's certainly a beautiful dream, but no one should think for a second we won't have to fight like hell to make it an actual reality.

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Hal Daub Finishes His Magical Mystery Tour (w/new poll)

Former Congressman and Omaha Mayor Hal Daub wrapped up his statewide listening tour with a couple of events in Omaha this week, leaving the door open to his third campaign for the U.S. Senate.
 The Associated Press reports:

Daub said he's found overwhelming support across the state for Bush and his decisions about Iraq.... 

Daub wouldn't say Friday how much money he's raised for a possible run, or how much of his own money he's spent on the listening tour. He also won't say whether he'd run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, a fellow Republican whom Daub says he considers a friend...

But Daub did say he "won't be dissuaded by whoever the candidates might be."

If he decides not to run, Daub says he'll return the money he's raised with interest and will pass the ideas he's gathered along to elected officials.

Boy, I'm sure Nebraska's elected officials can't wait to have Hal Daub tell them what the people of Nebraska are thinking. I still refuse to accept Daub's exaggerated and illegitimate claim that Nebraskans support President Bush and his war policy. This demonstrates nothing more than that the kind of people who'd attend a Hal Daub event are just as fringe-worthy and out of touch with the mainstream as Daub himself. I'm curious what others think of Daub's claim, though, so please answer our latest NNN poll.

As far as Daub actually running for Senate, I'd love to see him get the Republican nomination, but that's just not going to happen. I know it's said that "the third time's the charm", but we saw how well that worked out for Don Stenberg in 2006. No, as proven by the choice of Pete Ricketts, Nebraska Republicans might still nominate a candidate who is a total loser - but not a proven loser like Hal Daub.

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Bob Kerrey One Step Closer to ???

Following up on NNN's previous post, the Omaha World-Herald chimes in with some additional details and a slightly different take on Bob Kerrey's potential return to Nebraska's campaign trail: Former Sen. Bob Kerrey told trustees at his New York university Thursday that he is seriously considering running for the Senate again if Republican Chuck Hagel announces his retirement. "I'd like the answer to be 'yes' or 'no' as close to when Chuck makes his decision," Kerrey said in an interview. "I wanted to let them know the answer might be yes"....   Kerrey, a Democrat who served two terms in the Senate and one as Nebraska's governor, said the New School trustees understood why he is interested in possibly returning to public life. He said they hope he decides not to leave the university. "The odds still favor me saying no," Kerrey said.  If he were to win election again, Kerrey said, he suffers no illusion that he'd be happier than he is now. "It's not about happiness," Kerrey said. "It's about does the country need me to try?"Kerrey said he has been giving serious thought to the race because he thinks he could contribute to shaping American policies on national security, intelligence, trade and entitlement programs, such as Social Security and Medicare....  If Hagel decides not to seek re-election, Kerrey said he will announce his own plans soon after. He has talked the matter over with his wife and would decide with her, he said."In some ways, it's not a difficult decision. It's just, do I want to do it?"

I don't know, Bob. You tell us.

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Bob Kerrey One Step Closer to Coming Home

Bruin606 had the quick draw on this story, breaking that the Lincoln Journal-Star had just broken the news that former Nebraska Governor and U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey has notified the trustees of New School University that he is seriously considering a return to Nebraska and a run for the U.S. Senate. Kerrey promises an announcement within weeks, no longer willing to let his friend Chuck Hagel sit back and dictate the entire decision-making timetable in Nebraska politics: Bob Kerrey stepped to the brink of a possible 2008 Senate bid Thursday.... A decision on whether to return to his roots and attempt to once again represent Nebraska in the Senate is likely "within the next couple of weeks," Kerrey said in a telephone interview.....   Kerrey said he has become convinced Sen. Chuck Hagel will not be a candidate for a third term next year. "I am more and more certain Chuck is not going to seek re-election," Kerrey said, "and my intention is to make my decision before he makes an announcement." Hagel is expected to reveal his decision next month.....

"This is a very personal decision for me," Kerrey said. It requires him to balance personal happiness with the opportunity to "try to do something good for my country," he said.... Kerrey said he has received no signal from Hagel about the senator's intentions. "The only signal I get is connected to the fact that I went through this too at the end of my second term," he said. "I know that with me it could have gone either way." There does seem to be a minor disconnect between Kerrey's attempts to be respectful of Hagel's indecision while announcing that he's not going to wait around for Hagel to make up his mind. Of course, that's nowhere near the outright insulting flip-flop by Attorney General Jon Bruning - going from calling himself "a Hagel guy" to attacking Hagel at every chance he could get in a matter of weeks. Should Kerrey run (not something we can firmly count upon until he actually commits), there's certain to be silly attacks that he's somehow a carpetbagger. The buffoon Bruning even used that term, delighting in the idea of using it against Kerrey as a potential opponent. But, Kerrey's work at the New School was an incredible opportunity for a man of his near-boundless creative instincts that he probably would have been a fool to pass up. It's hard to imagine how serving as President of an out-state University could honestly be said to nullify Kerrey's undeniable record of proven commitment to the people of Nebraska - especially when he was serving his country, helping us come to terms with one of the worst tragedies in our nation's history, as a member of the 9/11 Commission. Still, there will be plenty of time to talk of such things. For now, though, we remain in the realm of speculation. It's hard to be content with that when there's so much work to be done, but - take heart - the clouds are beginning to part and all will soon be revealed.

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Bob Kerrey: Keeping Us On Our Toes

Last April, Bob Kerrey told the Lincoln Journal-Star that he wouldn't run against Sen. Chuck Hagel should he seek re-election, promising that he would, in fact, make a contribution to Hagel's campaign. At the same time, Kerrey declared, "I'm almost 100 percent certain I'm not going to run."

Well, speaking to the NY Times, Kerrey recently repeated, "If Hagel runs, not only would I not run, I would write him a check." One blogger at MyDD took issue with Kerrey's display of Nebraska-style nonpartisanship. But, the real story might be Kerrey's subtle change of tune should Hagel sit this one out:

"At the moment, I don't think I'm going to run. But these moments don't happen very often. It's a possibility."

Of course, I wouldn't expect a retiring Hagel to make any contribution to a potential - probably still unlikely - Kerrey campaign. But, even if it is but the faintest of possibilities, a lame-duck Hagel having to choose between a hypothetical Jon Bruning versus Bob Kerrey match-up would be a situation so ripe for political farce not even Shakespeare could have imagined it.

Dare we even dream?

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Nebraska Senate Race Hits the National Radar

What do ya' know, The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza is keeping an eye on Nebraska's 2008 Senate race and actually ranks it as the eighth most likely in the country to end in a partisan flip:

8. Nebraska: Can anyone claim to know what's going on in the mind of Sen. Chuck Hagel (R)? The Fix expects him to announce his retirement from the Senate some time this fall, but Hagel has proved us wrong before. If Hagel retires, Democrats are expected to make a major push for his seat. The likely candidate is Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, although former Sen. Bob Kerrey has also expressed some interest and might well have the right of first refusal. Republicans would quickly move to recruit Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, but it's not clear that Attorney General Jon Bruning, who is already in the race, would back out. The eventual Republican nominee should be helped by the state's strong GOP bent.

That certainly reads like Nebraska's chances of being a Democratic pick-up in the U.S. Senate are being taken very seriously - perhaps more than I'd previously entertained as possible.

No doubt, that's an exciting prospect. Sure, there's a long ways to go and plenty of variables that have yet to play out before any true judgment can be made, but it's nice to know that they're thinking of us and that Nebraska isn't being written off just because we've picked up a couple of nasty voting habits somewhere along the way.

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